When to Trust Data in Marketing… and When to Trust Your Gut

As marketers, we love our data! Data-driven marketing has become one of a marketer’s most powerful tools to make decisions grounded in logic, supported by trends, and optimized for growth. But here’s the thing: not every great marketing decision comes from an algorithm, dashboard, or spreadsheet. Sometimes, instinct just wins. So, when our world revolves around using data in marketing decisions, what happens when the numbers don’t tell the whole story? 

Well, some marketers lean into the numbers and ignore that nagging feeling that they’re missing something. Better marketers figure out when and how to trust the numbers and when to go with experience. Let’s explore how to strike the right balance between data and instinct in marketing.

Data in Marketing

As a refresher, here’s why we need data in marketing. Analytics help us see what is happening behind the scenes. Who is visiting our website? Who clicks a link in an email? Who are we engaging with on social? A/B testing helps us refine our messaging and get it to exactly what the customer wants to see. Conversion rates, heatmaps, and customer journey tracking give us insights that help optimize campaigns, allocate budgets more efficiently, and improve ROI.

But while data is great at showing what is happening, it doesn’t always tell us why. A campaign might be underperforming not because of weak messaging but because of an unexpected shift in customer sentiment. A high bounce rate might not mean bad content; it could be a slow-loading page. Numbers are essential, but they don’t always capture the full picture. 

Where Instinct Comes In

The fact that the numbers don’t give us full story is why it’s so important to go beyond the data and use our experience to determine not only what’s happening but why it’s happening. Only then can we make the best data-driven marketing decisions.

Let’s face it.  Data can’t always predict human behavior, emotional triggers, or brand loyalty. There is a human side to marketing that can be supplemented by data but can’t run on data alone. This understanding of emotions, trends, and cultural shifts is something that only humans can figure out, and it’s up to us as marketers to interpret the data and make decisions based on what we believe is happening.

When I Ignored the Data…and It Paid Off.

A few years ago, I ran into one of those classic marketing dilemmas. Everything I knew about SEO said that longer blog posts were the golden ticket (literally every case study, every past success story, every analytics dashboard!). It made sense, too. More content meant more keywords, more backlinks, and better rankings. The numbers didn’t lie.

But here’s the thing: even though we were getting lots of traffic, people weren’t actually sticking around or doing anything valuable. Bounce rates were high, people skimmed without engaging, and nobody clicked that little CTA at the bottom. Something wasn’t clicking.

My gut kept telling me to try shorter, snappier content… something readers could actually finish before their coffee got cold. So, despite everything I’d been trained to believe, I ran a quick experiment with shorter, punchier posts that cut straight to the point.

Guess what happened? Engagement went up. Time-on-page improved. And, the best of all, people actually started clicking on that CTA. Turns out, our audience didn’t need endless content. They wanted quick, clear answers.

If I’d relied solely on the data, I’d probably still be writing 2,500-word posts that nobody fully read. But by trusting my gut (and confirming it with a simple test), I discovered something more powerful: data guides us, but sometimes intuition gets us there faster.

So, What’s the Balance?

When it comes to balancing data and instinct, I’ve learned the best marketers have a process. I’ve developed my own approach over the years, and it’s worked well every time I’ve had to juggle hard numbers with a strong gut feeling. Here’s how it goes:

1. Start with the numbers: Begin by letting data guide your initial marketing strategy. Look at your metrics, trends, and past results. This gives you a foundation and identifies what you should focus on first.
2. Look for what’s missing: Step back and question your data. Are there things happening behind the scenes that aren’t showing up in your analytics? Are customers behaving in new ways that your dashboard doesn’t capture?
3. Lean into your experience (when it feels right): If something in your gut says the numbers are misleading or incomplete, trust yourself enough to dig deeper. Your instincts are built on experience, so give them a chance to speak.
4. Test small, then scale: Run quick experiments to validate your gut-driven ideas. You don’t need to go all-in immediately! Even small tests can show if your instincts are right, letting you confidently shift strategy.

At the end of the day, marketing isn’t just numbers, and it’s not purely intuition either. The real skill is knowing when to rely on each one, and when to blend them.

So, if you ever find yourself staring at a screen full of data that’s pulling you in one direction while your instincts are shouting something else entirely, pause for a moment. Ask yourself: What’s missing here? What do I know that these numbers aren’t telling me? And how can I quickly test my instinct before going all in?

Because marketing is ultimately about connecting with humans… and human decisions are about more than just numbers.